So as you guys probably don’t know, I like the odd little flutter here and there… Over the past six months, I’ve made about three hundred squid just by picking safe bets and the occasional punt. Major coup’s have been Man United winning the Champions league (something I bet on in March) – Picking two winners at the grand national, (Comply or die and Slim pickings) – Backing Huzzah at the Chester races the other day…
All in all, I’ve risked about 40 quid and won 300. (I won 185 alone on the national)
All through the season I’ve been milking safe money from the Barclays premiership by betting (usually) against Derby, with Man Utd, Chelsea and Liverpool, and then picking the other really obvious ones.
Now I’m turning my attention to Euro 2008 and I have put a massive 28 pounds in the kitty, my aim? To win as much as I can before blowing it all on the final.
As each day of the tournament goes by, I’m going to document what I’ve backed and what I’ve avoided, and my results, each and every day.
During the premiership, I found that usually the safest bet was knowing teams like Man Utd and Chelsea don’t usually conceed that many goals (last season, it was something silly like a goal against every six games) – by knowing this, I could back correct scores for Man Utd by multiple bets (1-0, 2-0, 3-0, 4-0) – If the score ended 2-0. I’d make 2 pound (for example), if the game ended 4-0, I’d make something like 20.
By hedging my bets, I’ve managed to accrue all this money. (And then placing it on ‘punts’ on the horses) – I lie, I actually know quite a bit about horse racing too, but don’t like to admit it.
The most important thing to remember is that I bet small, and don’t mind losing these small amounts as long as another bet comes in (there have been weeks where I’ve lost everything I’ve placed, and then the next week, I’ve won it all back again)
By only betting a maximum of 80% of my stake, I’m always in the game. – Sure, 80% of nothing is still nothing, but by keeping this safe float, I can always win it back…
Well, I’ve been raising this 28 pounds for a while now. I’ve just won another 16 pounds of both of Englands friendlies. 8 pounds of that money is currently sitting on Spain beating the USA (Tonight) – Which I think is a 90% certainty. (As they’ll want to send out a very clear message that they are favourites) and then France to beat Columbia on Wednesday (Again, similar reasons) – I split my 8 pound and put 4 on each. (Netting me a whopping 6 pounds each if they come off)
If they don’t, that’s fine, I’m just doing my research before the tournament. My aim in the tournament is to make as much as I can above the initial 20. (I’ve already made 8 pounds of those friendlies) –
Whatever I have after 20 pounds, I’m going to place on the final, in some way. Maybe as a couple of split bets, or maybe as one big one…
I have three suspicions about this tournament. Firstly, If you look back at most of the major tournaments in history, there’s always a first day upset. (I draw attention to Senegal beating France, etc) – I don’t think turkey will beat Portugal, but I do think the Swiss may beat the Czech republic (and so do the bookies).
Secondly, I think Greece used up all this freakiness last time, so I don’t envisage there’s going to be that many upsets. Sure, one or two, but not every game. (Bare with me on this one)
And thirdly, there’s going to be a surprise team, but I don’t even know who it is yet. (My suspicions are Poland, Czech republic and Russia)
So, without further ado, I’ll now go into detail about where I’ve bet on the opening weekend with my 20 pounds. (And in some cases why)
Oh yeah, I use decimal odds, it makes things easier (times the stake by the odds to get the payout)
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