Gambling

So I started with 28 pounds, and to be honest, most of my prophecies have come wrong throughout the tournament. However, the good news is that I’ve broken even by placing a few bets at the start.

Basically, I lost on some pretty big upsets, some “stars” not performing, and some just plain wrong punts.

On the up side though, I backed spain to win at 6-1, and the big winner (and indeed, the only reason I broke even at £29.47) – was David Villa being top scorer. With 4, that’s pretty low really.

But hey, I made a 1.47 profit, so that’s now going to sit there till the footy season starts.

Oh well, at least they won. (netting me a massive 66p)

Some other bets came true too that I’d placed in the first day.

Portugal finished top of their group
Spain have qualified
Austria have not qualified

So even though I gambled 5.75 last night (and lost 4pound of it) I won back 5.87 on the other bets. Meaning that in total I’m still hugely down. (Come on Villa, you could rescue this nightmare!)

I should really get a bet on Holland winning the tournament, but I feel that it’s too early to say… Tonight is a real tricky one to place, So I’m planting .87p on something safe….

Romania to win.

I’m also going to back a few “first cards” as the worst odds is 8.00

Gattuso, Toni, Rossi, Materazzi and Makelele for the first yellow card….

Thank god I didn’t bet this weekend, as it appears to have been a weekend of upsets. (although I picked out Holland which was a good one, Italy, yet again, let me down)

So now it’s Germany to step up into the final eight, something i can see them doing, (no matter how much the Austrians will want to stop them)

So I’ve done an each way bet on Podolski and Klose to score the first goal (£2 on each) – basically meaning, if they score either the first or the second goal, I win.. I’ve also put the remaining 1.75 on Germany to win…

Well well well, I managed to lose a mighty 34p last night due to one thing or another. Surprise surprise, my punt on Smolarek didn’t come off, and to be honest I was looking at a 1.34p loss last night till Austria managed to get a penalty and boost my recovery.

So now I have 5.25 for the group of death. I think a similar strategy to last night is called for, (basically, low stake bets) – I’m holding out for Spain in the final group as I think they’ll win.

It’s very simple really, I’m going for Holland to win, and Italy to win.

Well, it looks like I’m making a slow progress recovery with two out of two bets last night. (Ronaldo to score and Portugal to win)

This brings my total up to a whopping £5.69

But tonight is a tough one to call. Seen as I said I’d (try to) put a bet on every match, I need to go for a dead cert tonight and something low-stake. I don’t see the Germans having an easy ride through tonight and I think (@1.66) to win is a bit low. The croatians are going to come out all guns firing, and try and upset the Germans.

Either way, I think that the germans may in fact, or draw, but it’s a tough one to call as the tournament hasn’t had a real upset yet.

So, I’ve decided to place .69p on Klose to score at any time. (Which will net me exactly 1 pound profit if it comes true)

The other game however, is a much more clear cut game as far as I can see. I think Poland will beat Austria – but I think it’ll be close.

So therefore, I’ve gone on the punt I mentioned earlier. Smolarek to score the first goal (@7.00) and I’ve gone for poland to win (3.25) and a draw (2.25) – as long as either happens, I win.

Come on Poland!

(Leaving me with 2 pounds for the group of death, Which I’m so going to skip tomorrow – Italy can’t be that shit again can they?)

(oh, and just an update, some group bets that I placed are looking good too… Germany to finish first, Portugal to finish first, Austria to finish last, Villa to be top scorer etc)

Yay! I won 73p off one of the biggest wins in Euro’s for a long time.

And so I’m going to be mega brave and put £1 on Portugal to win tonight, and putting a mighty!? 73p on Ronaldo to score.. Yes, living dangerously is my middle name. Well it’s not, it’s James, but if I had stupid parents who gambled their entire bank on outside bets, then it’d have been dangerously.

Buggering french, and buggering italians.

Well done to the dutch. I was hoping you’d finish at 2-0 and I’d net 13.00 quid (Which would have covered all the other bets for the day) but that wasn’t to be.

In total, I lost 9.70 yesterday due to Ribery, Benzema, Italy, and France being shit. (And holland being a bit too good)

Which means I’m nearly broke. I have 1 pound left due to a no-bet with Henry. Which naturally, is going to go on Spain Winning today (@1.73)

Basically, if they don’t. I’m watching the group games with nothing but a passing interest until I get some of my banked money back…

All I can say is “phew” – a lot more close matches than I envisaged, – Without saying “I told you so” – I predicted all four match outcomes. Not a bad start, here are my results (there are still quite a few of my previous bets that are unmatched so far)

Hits
1 pound on Portugal and Czech Republic to win (@4.50)
Both were closer than I expected, the real surprise being Austria’s enthusiasm. I do suspect my other bet of “Austria finishing bottom” will come true though as I believe the Polish are stronger going forwards.

1 pound on Croatia and Germany to win (@2.90)

1 pound on Portugal to win the match (@1.72)
This was a hedge in case the Czech’s didn’t win. So I won twice on Portugal

1 pound on Germany to win the match (@1.57)
Again, same as above, but in case the Croatian’s didn’t win (Which I feel they were a bit lucky to win actually) – I’m going to stop backing the Croatians now because I’ve realised I fucking loath Slaven Billic.

Misses
1 pound on Ronaldo to score any time (First game) (@2.10)
The git didn’t score, and Portugal were a bit unlucky to hit the wood work so many times. (Ronaldo particularly was very unlucky) – I’m probably going to back Ronaldo to score every group game though, he’s going to at some point…

2 pounds on Klose / Gomez scoring in their match at any time (@2.25 each)
Annoyingly, it was between these two and Podolski to score (at 7/1 that’d have been a really decent bet) – Never mind. I will now probably switch to backing Podolski to get others, (As he played the entire 90 minutes) – Also fancy a punt on Polish Smolerak at some point (against Austria probably)

So I hit 4 out of 7 for the first weekend. (Expending 7.00 and my return was 10.70) – Not bad, but I’m a bit disappointed about the scorers, (Klose played particularly well, but tended to pass the ball rather than shoot – I have no doubt he’ll come good though)

Running Tally: +3.70

Today’s matches:-

France – Romania
I have money on France already. I do think the Romanian’s are going to give it a good go, and they are always organised and tough to crack, but I think the French have a) something to prove and b) a lot of game winners.

I’ve also backed Henry(@7.00), Ribery(@9.00), and Benzema(@7.00) to score (£2.70 down) – I’d quite like Henry to have a good tournament, dunno why precisely. Obviously, I’d quite like it to be 3-0!

Holland vs Italy
This one could go anywhere.. – I can see it going either way to be honest, I’d back the Italians normally, but I think the Dutch are up for it too. It’s too close to call. The bookies seem to agree on a tight game, drawing Italy as only marginal favourites.

Therefore, I’m going to back Italy and a Draw (@2.50, and @2.80 respectively)

Scores
As I think that neither team will concede that many goals, I’ve decided to go for a selection of 6 correct score guesses too. (1-0, 2-0, 0-0,1-1,0-1,0-2) – I see this being a low scoring game as neither team will concede that many goals (in my opinion anyway) – Either way, that’s £6 down (one on each score) and the lowest odd is @6.00 (meaning I’ll break even) – However, if it ends up 2-0 to the Italians, I net 4 quid…
(which will cover my match bet above) – As long as neither team scores 3, I’m okay…

Spain won against the USA last night, not quite the drubbing I expected, but still, they won. Netting me another 5.56 (from an original stake of 4.45 that’s not exactly retirement sorted)

So I’ve done a bit of research and put the entire amount on “Will there be a penalty shootout” (@1.25) meaning I’ll win about a quid when there is a penalty shootout. (given that 2004(two),2000(one), 1996(four), 1992(one) – you have to go back to 1988 to find a penalty-less tournament, but as that was the old three final games format, it’s hardly relevant.

I see this one as a dead cert too. My only possible problem is that I’ve tied the money up till near the end of the tournament. (as I’ve done with a few other bets too)

so that’s it now.. No more bets, time for kick off…

Well, France beat Columbia last night, (1-0, not quite a drubbing which I was expecting) – However, this netted me a huge £6.43.

(I said “huge” sarcastically)

So that gives me another six pounds to play with. This next bet is simple.

1 pound on the tournament top Goal Scorer. (Torres, Ronaldo, Van Nistelroy, Klose, David Villa, Benzema) – These are the top six favourites at the moment. The best odds being Benzema @17.00 and the worst being Torres and Ronaldo (@10.00) – so therefore, as long as it’s one of these.. I’ll win £4.

(Although, once Spain hopefully beat the USA tonight, I’ll probably back the next Four favourites too)

I put the remaining 0.43p on a punt, Germany being the top goalscoring team of round 1. (I only think this due to the presence of Poland and Austria) – Odds @4.50

So there we go…

I have 26.43 pounds worth of bets on currently (16 bets total)

I stand to win (if 100% come off, which they can’t) – 59.91 this would be a *very* good opening weekend…

Remembering my initial stake of £20 – I’ll be happy if I end at 30.

So as you guys probably don’t know, I like the odd little flutter here and there… Over the past six months, I’ve made about three hundred squid just by picking safe bets and the occasional punt. Major coup’s have been Man United winning the Champions league (something I bet on in March) – Picking two winners at the grand national, (Comply or die and Slim pickings) – Backing Huzzah at the Chester races the other day…

All in all, I’ve risked about 40 quid and won 300. (I won 185 alone on the national)

All through the season I’ve been milking safe money from the Barclays premiership by betting (usually) against Derby, with Man Utd, Chelsea and Liverpool, and then picking the other really obvious ones.

Now I’m turning my attention to Euro 2008 and I have put a massive 28 pounds in the kitty, my aim? To win as much as I can before blowing it all on the final.

As each day of the tournament goes by, I’m going to document what I’ve backed and what I’ve avoided, and my results, each and every day.

My “technique”

During the premiership, I found that usually the safest bet was knowing teams like Man Utd and Chelsea don’t usually conceed that many goals (last season, it was something silly like a goal against every six games) – by knowing this, I could back correct scores for Man Utd by multiple bets (1-0, 2-0, 3-0, 4-0) – If the score ended 2-0. I’d make 2 pound (for example), if the game ended 4-0, I’d make something like 20.
By hedging my bets, I’ve managed to accrue all this money. (And then placing it on ‘punts’ on the horses) – I lie, I actually know quite a bit about horse racing too, but don’t like to admit it.

The most important thing to remember is that I bet small, and don’t mind losing these small amounts as long as another bet comes in (there have been weeks where I’ve lost everything I’ve placed, and then the next week, I’ve won it all back again)

By only betting a maximum of 80% of my stake, I’m always in the game. – Sure, 80% of nothing is still nothing, but by keeping this safe float, I can always win it back…

Why 28?

Well, I’ve been raising this 28 pounds for a while now. I’ve just won another 16 pounds of both of Englands friendlies. 8 pounds of that money is currently sitting on Spain beating the USA (Tonight) – Which I think is a 90% certainty. (As they’ll want to send out a very clear message that they are favourites) and then France to beat Columbia on Wednesday (Again, similar reasons) – I split my 8 pound and put 4 on each. (Netting me a whopping 6 pounds each if they come off)

If they don’t, that’s fine, I’m just doing my research before the tournament. My aim in the tournament is to make as much as I can above the initial 20. (I’ve already made 8 pounds of those friendlies) –
Whatever I have after 20 pounds, I’m going to place on the final, in some way. Maybe as a couple of split bets, or maybe as one big one…

Euro 2008

I have three suspicions about this tournament. Firstly, If you look back at most of the major tournaments in history, there’s always a first day upset. (I draw attention to Senegal beating France, etc) – I don’t think turkey will beat Portugal, but I do think the Swiss may beat the Czech republic (and so do the bookies).
Secondly, I think Greece used up all this freakiness last time, so I don’t envisage there’s going to be that many upsets. Sure, one or two, but not every game. (Bare with me on this one)
And thirdly, there’s going to be a surprise team, but I don’t even know who it is yet. (My suspicions are Poland, Czech republic and Russia)

So, without further ado, I’ll now go into detail about where I’ve bet on the opening weekend with my 20 pounds. (And in some cases why)

Oh yeah, I use decimal odds, it makes things easier (times the stake by the odds to get the payout)

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